Final Four Predictions

First off, I want to make sure I extend a big congratulations to Adam Templeton and Kara Finley, who are soon to be married in South Dakota. Along with some former teammates, I am present in SD enjoying the festivities. I couldn’t be happier to see two of my friends, two great people, unite for eternity. I’m ecstatic to be able to share this day with them, and wish them nothing but joy and happiness down the road. Congrats to Adam and Kara! (But a wedding on the first day of the Final Four Temp? How’d you let that one sneak by?)

Back to business. (Well, sort of. Can it be called business if there is absolutely no financial activity? No? Ok then. I’ll try again.)

Here we go again, prediction time. Time for me to try to prove my basketball knowledge (or at least guess right). After a decent 8-4 record coming in, it will be interesting to see how the Final Four plays out.

Game 1 Butler vs Michigan State

To be honest, I’m disappointed that these two teams have to be on the same side of the bracket. I want both these teams to win for different reasons.

Butler is the mid-major team, representing a history of underdogs in the NCAA tournament and basketball players without the most size or talent. But more importantly, this team represents the common man. This is a hard-working team who represents everything that is good about the NCAA. A team filled with scholar-athletes and overachievers who, when put together, can produce a whole greater than the sum of their individual parts. As a basketball fan what more could you ask? Watching Butler play is like watching an instructional video. They are that well coached and they are that good.

Michigan State is my home-town team, boasting mostly Michigan players, and representing the state’s blue-collar work ethic. If you don’t live there, it’s difficult to understand. The state of Michigan (the east side especially) is struggling more than people realize when looking at statistics (After all, who knows what it means to have a 15% unemployment rate statewide, rising above 20% in certain areas? Those are just numbers). But Tom Izzo’s teams show the state that it can succeed.

I often am annoyed with media members overblowing the relationship between team success and the attitude of their host city. But in this case its hard to ignore. Detroit and much of Michigan was built on the premise of assembly-line labor. Workers arrived, put on their hard hats, and got to work, earning each month’s paycheck through. Tom Izzo’s teams compete in much the same way. Izzo prides himself on defense, rebounding, and smart basketball. He doesn’t generally recruit the top-20 players in the country (although he’s gotten a few), he wants the lunch-pail guys. Guys with a chip on their shoulder who are going to work harder than the kid who’s been spoon-fed his whole life. That’s why Izzo recruits so often in Michigan and the surrounding areas; those kids understand the struggle and will do anything to put themselves in a position to succeed.

Now, in saying this, I don’t mean that this doesn’t happen elsewhere. Plenty of coaches recruit players from a disadvantaged upbringing. But Izzo doesn’t go after the bad boys, he recruits the hard-workers. Rarely do MSU athletes (I am referencing the basketball team, not football in this case obviously) find themselves in trouble. Izzo runs a tight ship and deserves all the respect in the world for the job he’s done.

Well, after my two cents on each team that really tells nothing about the game, I guess I better get into some content…

Game 1 represents coaches with similar philosophy. Both teams made it to the Final Four relying on the “ugly” parts of basketball to win (rebounding for MSU and defense for Butler). I’d be surprised, scratch that, I would be shocked if this game reaches 60 points, let alone 70. Neither team is offensive-minded, though they can both score and play very well together.

I think the key to the game will be Butler’s defensive rebounding. MSU is going to have trouble scoring on Butler’s defense despite superior athleticism. But, second chance points could be huge momentum swings in the Spartan’s direction. To get here, Butler had to thwart a similar Kansas State team’s efforts, and did an excellent job.

The most important player for Butler will be Matt Howard (Yes, this is the same Matt Howard that averaged 14 pts, 8 rebs, and 2 blocks in two games against Brent Heemskerk). As an undersized center, a lot of the rebounding will fall on Howard’s hustle, grit, and determination to outsmart the Spartan bigs to the ball. (Oh and remember how I mentioned Howards resemblance to one, Ron Burgundy. Thoughts?)

Howard

Hello San Diego

Burgundy

This face? It's me remembering the time I dunked on Brent Heemskerk. Nasty.

Offensively, Butler knows what they will get from Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward, two players who have been outstanding in this tournament. However, they need Howard to step up on this end as well. Howard will have to be that third scoring option, trying to get easy baskets whenever he can with offensive rebounds and low post feeds. (The game’s wildcard will be the location of one Mr. Heemskerk. If Howard can channel his inner self-confidence by feeling Brent’s presence MSU may be in trouble. If Brent’s location in South Dakota hidden amongst Mt. Rushmore is too difficult for Howard’s radar to detect, Howard could be in for a long day. Brent’s presence is key, not some of the time, all the time. And yes, Brent eagerly awaits the day when people we played against are no longer in the NCAA.)

For Michigan State, their keys remain much the same; find a way to share the ball and break down the opponents defense without your starting point guard and best player (Kalin Lucas). Durrell Summers has stepped up, averaging over 20 PPG and knocking down clutch baskets for the Spartans. But in this game, points in the paint become even more important. With their size advantage, look for MSU to establish Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green, and Delvon Roe posting up smaller players. If Butler is forced to double team, Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, and Summers will be able to get open looks.

This game will be a hotly-contested, low scoring affair that goes down to the wire. Neither team will be willing to give an inch and I’m looking forward to the physical play. Slight edge to MSU for their size and athleticism, but I can already tell the basketball gods (and the Indy fans) are going to be upset with me for this pick.

Final score: Butler 56 – MSU 58
Brent’s Prediction: MSU 1 – Butler 0 (Points don’t matter to the big fella. Just results.)

Game 2 West Virginia vs Duke

While the other side of the bracket predicates everything that is good about college basketball, this matchup shows something entirely different.

In West Virginia, you have an easy-to-hate coach (Bob Huggins) notorious for his thug and intimidation tactics. Huggins will beat his team up so they beat you up. He has a history of giving people second and third chances (not a bad thing) while his teams continually are in trouble with authorities (this is more of a reference back to his Cincy days as we haven’t heard much from the Mountaineer squad). West Virginia’s made it this far by defeating their opponents mentally and physically.

Duke and Coach K have the pretty-boy image of college basketball. Though seemingly cool on the court, Coach K has a reputation for belittling players behind closed doors, often barraging them with a shouldn’t-be-made-public vocabulary. His players either love him or hate him. Just like a lot of fans either love Duke, or hate Duke.

If nothing else, West Virginia vs Duke is intriguing. Duke has shown they can play any style, but matching-up with the forward trio of bully Da’Sean Butler, “Stretch-Armstrong” Devin Ebanks, and increasing steady Kevin Jones, is something the Blue Devils haven’t had to do this year. What makes the Moutaineers so intriguing is that their best players can basically all play the same position. They have size, they have strength, and they have heart.

For Duke to win, they are going to have to shoot well. Jon Scheyer (one of the least favorite players of my former teammate Jonathan Cox), Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith will have to shoot the ball well. Against Baylor, The Dukies were fortunate that despite Singler’s nightmare performance, Smith stepped up and had a career game. Duke’s big three will have to combine for 60 points to keep up with West Virginia’s attack, while their role players must continue to do the dirty work.

West Virginia must defend the three-point line in their zone and not allow Duke to get many open looks. The length of the zone is going to have to bother the Blue Devils, otherwise, we could be looking at a high-scoring matchup.

I like West Virginia and their three forwards to carry them to victory

Final: West Virginia 70 – Duke 64
Brent: Duke 1 – WVU 0

One Shining Button

I don’t mean to polish my own buttons, but I just did it – my first perfect day of action, 2 for 2 (I realize it took me a few days and ultimately I was only selecting two games, but still. I’m excited ok? So don’t take that away from me).

After a MSU vs Tennessee thriller, Duke vs Baylor saw Duke returning to the Final Four for the first time since 2004. Even when Baylor finished the first half with the lead, was there ever really any doubt that Duke would win? I thought the Blue Devil’s did a great job of responding with key baskets any time it seemed like the Bears were getting comfortable. Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith hit three after three to continually give Duke the advantage, not allowing the Bears a chance to build any significant lead.

As we approached the end of the game, Duke, as they almost always do, received a favorable whistle down the stretch. Now, I understand that these guys play smart against a sometimes overly-aggressive Baylor team, but still, watching that game could you justify Duke making 23 of 29 free throws while Baylor only shot 19? Not to mention the fact that Duke made 21-27 in the second half. Yes, I understand that some of those were intentional hacks at the end of the game, but historically that’s the way it works with this team. Not only are you trying to beat the players, you are trying to beat Coach K and the aura surrounding the program. You could see the frustrated looks on the faces of Baylor players. They were fighting an uphill battle.

I’m not saying Duke wouldn’t have won the game anyway (I think they were the better team regardless) but its hard not to notice their favorable whistle.

Duke’s win puts me at a much more stellar-looking 8-4 entering the final weekend of play. I’m hoping to keep this thing going. Check back soon for my Final Four selections.

On to the game I enjoyed watching…

Maybe call this Redemption? Speaking to me winning and Brent actually finishing the sandwich

MSU vs Tennessee

First Half

Both teams off to a very fast start. The quick pace and helter-skelter style definitely favor the Volunteers. However, MSU is doing “man”-‘s work on the offensive glass with 8 offensive rebounds.The Spartans just need to play better defense, not leaving Wayne Chism with open three point looks.

(I put “man” in quotes because of a certain exhibition game during my sophomore season in college. After getting beat badly on the boards by our division two opponent, we got quite a tongue lashing. One of our assistants went off on a tirade about our lack of effort, that went something like this – “You guys are just getting outmuscled, outworked, and outtoughed. These guys are MEN. You are playing against MEN. I mean, look at their stats, number 24, 8 min, 5 rebs, MAN. Number 44, 14 mins, 8 rebs, MAN. Number 32, 10 mins, 7 rebs, MAN. Number 50, 12 min, 9 rebs, MAN. These guys are MEN.” Naturally, this became a historic moment, repeatedly referenced for our team for years to come.)

Very impressed with the pressure of reserve guard Melvin Goins. He’s making life miserable for Korie Lucious. Forced a few turnovers and finished with a couple baskets. He is single-handedly taking MSU out of their offense with his ball pressure.

We have a close, high-scoring game (41-39 Tennessee) going into halftime. Its setting up to be a good one.

PS About a week ago Brent mistakenly referred to Tennessee big man Brian Williams as Bison Dele, as I continued to talk about what a big boy he was. For maybe the first time in his less than stellar career, Brent seemed to be onto something. Especially since Dele’s former name was Brian Williams. Creepy, I know. Ok, if he’s not a Dele-Williams maybe he’s the offspring of David Adkins. You don’t know who that is? Really? He’s very famous. Think. Think. More commonly know as the co-star of Houseguest with Phil Hartman. Yes, David Adkins is Sinbad.

Bison Dele

Brian Williams

Sinbad

Second Half Bill Simmons style

MSU ball. First possession Raymar Morgan jacks a three. For all the talent and athleticism present, he has not been able to take the next step to become an elite player. At times he takes bad shots, makes bad decisions, and looks lost on the defensive end. MSU needs him to play better.

17:14 And don’t look now, as Morgan makes a good strong move to the basket, Brent appears from this kitchen, the leftover sandwich and BBQ sauce in hand. We’ll continue to monitor his status and see if his second effort proves superior to his first.

16:31 After what looked like it should have been a halfcourt violation, Tennessee completes the third backdoor alley-oop to Prince. After this happens twice wouldn’t you think MSU players would learn that JP Prince is looking for back cuts to the basket?

Side Note: Brent Jordan Heemskerk has finally finished the Adam Emmenecker sandwich during round 2. It must have been the specialized BBQ sauce. If he can finish, I can predict this game. Maybe MSU will win afterall. Too bad we all don’t get second chances.

15:31 3 Summers, 3 Chism (Again Raymar Morgan, this is the second time you left him open), 3 Allen, missed 3 Bobby Maze, long 2 Summers and the foul. This is a frantic wide open pace. MSU is making shots now, but it definitely favors the Vols. MSU needs to play at their pace and not let Tennessee dictate tempo. MSU leads 51-50

14:06 Bruce Pearl yanks off his jacket contesting a no-call, revealing his orange suspenders, orange tie combo. You are a braver man than I Bruce.

13:50 Sinbad airballs a free throw. Are you telling me all those scenes in Houseguest were fake? I thought Sinbad could hoop. Hollywood’s so tricky. 51-51

12:16 Big three from Lucious after a great hustle play from Austin Thornton. Though he won’t show up on the stat sheet, Thornton’s hustle kept that play alive after a ten foot jump hook from Delvon Roe draws nothing but glass. 56-51 MSU. Timeout Vols

11:42 Great ball fake, agility, and finish with the left by Day-Day. Bucket good and the free throw. 59-51 MSU. I don’t even want to say this, am I right? (I hate karma, why’d I say anything?)

10:16 Lucious continues to struggle with pressure. This time, from Bobby Maze. To any ballhandlers out there, simplicity is key against pressure. Make the game easy for yourself. 59-55 MSU.

7:44 Day-Day iso from the top of the key against Sinbad. Nice assist to Chris Allen. 61-57 MSU. You know your starting point guard isn’t playing if you isolate your 6’6″ 250-lb power forward initiating your offense from and taking his man one-on-one from the perimeter at the end of the shot clock. Good thing Mr. Green is from Saginaw, MI, home of the versatile athlete.

6:06 Tennessee takes the lead on a nice jump hook by Sinbad. Good position and use of the wide body. We’ve got a game on our hands. 62-61 Tennessee

4:40 GREAT finish by Day-Day another basket and foul. He is MSU’s choice to make a big play. The big fella takes a well-deserved rest before the final four minutes. 66-64 MSU

4:24 Pick-and-roll between Sinbad and JP Prince. Sinbad receives the ball and draws the foul. Prince comes up after the play to hear Sinbad say “Shut the “expletive” up” on national television. He proceeds to miss both free throws including an airball on the second. See, karma. 66-64 MSU

3:57 Athletic finish by JP “Tayshaun’s younger brother” Prince ties the game, 66-66. Setting up for a great finish (have I said that already?)

2:52 Big three from Summers off the feed from Allen. 69-66 MSU. WebMaster’s comment – “This game’s setting up for an onions”. We love Bill Raftery.

1:56 MSU calls timeout after big offensive rebound and dunk from Sinbad. Verne tells us to “buckle up”.

Back from commercial and we get our first “onions” of the tournament (first one we’ve heard anyway). Again, we love Bill Raftery.

1:08 Maze drives baseline, pump fakes, and tosses up a shot… over the backboard. Thankfully, I am not longer the only guard to shoot a layup over the backboard in the NCAA tournament. Please just don’t show Ty Rogers anymore.

0:40 Missed three by Summers at the end of the shot clock. Huge rebound by Morgan (I guess he did step up didn’t he?) giving the Spartans a chance to take the next step to the Final Four

0:28 Apparently getting the rebound was enough for Lucious, as he misses the front end to give Tennesse life. 69-68 MSU

11.2 seconds Day-Day fouls Scottie Hopson, a 60% free throw shooter on a mid-range jumper. Two shots

First one good. 69-69. No doubt about that one. Timeout.

Second one hits the left side of the rim. Ball tapped around… Lucious corrals it.

Green pushes the ball up the floor (why your pg gives up the ball to a power forward, I do not know), finds Morgan (who else?) underneath. Gets fouled with 1.8 sec to go

1.8 seconds Morgan makes the first. Timeout Tennessee.

Brent asks make or miss. Not a bad idea assuming 1.8 seconds is not enough time to get a rebound and a decent shot.

I say make it. They will call timeout regardless. You want as many points on the board as possible. If they have no timeouts remaining, maybe I agree. Otherwise, I don’t think you have anything to gain.

Timeout MSU.

Morgan misses hard off the backboard and iron. Purposefully. Sinbad grabs the board and quickly calls timeout.

Refs check the clock, say 1.6 to go. Tommy Izzo agreed with Brent. Hopefully Brent’s track record of failures does not doom the Spartans.

1.6 Tennessee ball on the baseline. Chism takes it out, Roe pressuring him. Heaves it to Prince near halfcourt. Airball. MSU prevails.

Yes! 1 for 1 today. And a close game, did I say it would be a good one?

Touche Brent. Even though I’m not sure either of us would’ve been wrong, at least it didn’t hurt you this time.

Duke’s turn.

A Meaty Sweet Sixteen

The Sweet Sixteen is a big deal. So we couldn’t watch the game just anywhere. The obvious choice? Jethros. (So yes Drake sports fans, I do actually go there. Great food and atmosphere, what’s not to like?) Here is a self-descriptive photo of the WebMaster as we watched Tennessee vs Ohio State. Oh, and this is the SEVENTEENTH time (I felt like “17” didn’t provide enough emphasis) the WebMaster has finished the entire thing. By 9 PM, he traded jeans for sweatpants, and was in a cold sweat the rest of the night. This, to me, only further adds to the accomplishment. Kudos WebMaster.

The Webmaster doing his thing.

This got the night off to a promising start. (Seriously. The guy finished it in about 12 minutes. The rest of the table hadn’t finished passing the ketchup.) But then Brent Heemskerk’s subpar performance happened. I knew I was in for a bad night. Shown with Blair Nelson challenging the WebMaster, the three pounds of meat in Brent’s leftovers box were more disappointing than Omar Samhan laying an egg and me wrongly selecting OSU to win a close one.

Now onto the less important stuff–the tourney. I know, I know. I messed up. By about 8 PM last night I couldn’t believe it. While Tennessee and Ohio State were in a dogfight, St. Mary’s was down 25 plus at the hands of the powerful… Baylor? Wait, my upset pick got smashed by more than 20 points and it wasn’t even THAT close? I don’t know what the line on the game was, but man that was ugly. And even my bold player prediction – omar samhan underperformed. (Since I put his name in all caps before, I feel like all lowercase letters is more fitting after his first half performance. At the half omar had a stellar 3 points on 1-8 shooting with 6 rebounds and 2 blocks. While the last two figures are decent numbers for a half, 1-8 in a half for your game changer is not gonna win many games.)

Brent not finishing his dinner. Shocking.

Brent must have guarded him during halftime instead of eating his dinner, because omar regained his confidence and put up decent numbers in the second half, finishing with a respectable 15 pts and 9 rebs. But, I guess thats what a gamechanger is. The guy who is going to make or break the team. The guy who can win it. Or lose it. Last night, that guy was omar samhan in a nutshell.

Ok, fine, I got that game wrong (yes WAYYY wrong). At least I was going to be 3-1 in my predictions, right? Well, almost. Tennessee vs OSU was a good game. Ultimately these teams were relatively even and put on a show. I was even right about Evan Turner (it was the obvious choice I know, but still). Turner finished with 31 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, a steal and a block. That’s a pretty complete game no matter how you cut it. Oh yeah, and he never sat against a swarming defense designed to stop him, pressure him, and rattle him for the full 94 feet. Even though he finished with 6 turnovers, I cannot take anything away from him. He played a very good floor game. Tennessee just has more bodies and more balance.

Now stumbling into the late games, I understood how OSU could lose (Ugh St. Mary’s) but I needed to pick up two wins to at least salvage the evening.

Actually, before I go there, congrats again to the UNI Panthers on a great season. They surpassed all expectations and showed the NCAA that we the MVC are getting closer. The MVC can be a great conference and successful in March. (Now if only we can annex Butler from the Horizon.) Thanks UNI and congrats on a fantastic year.

As for the game, UNI played tough, but ultimately the size, power and coaching of MSU won out. For one of the first times this season, UNI did not get great shots at the end of the game. They were trying a little too hard. Maybe a little tired.

Regardless, MSU still needed to make a few big plays to win the game, and they did.

I’m happy with my Draymond “Day-Day” Green selection for gamechanger. He was easily the difference. In the first half, UNI got out to a sizable lead as MSU struggled to find their identity.

Without Kalin Lucas, the Spartans lacked a calming influence on the floor. In the second half, that was Green. Green finished with 8 points, 5 rebounds, and a team leading four assists. (Tied with Lucious. Yes the regular point guards for MSU are Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious. Weird, I know. It’d be like if Ali and I played in the same backcourt. As Raftery pointed out last night, a game handmade for Al McGuire.)

Maybe I would’ve been better served selecting Durrell Summers, as he scored half MSU’s points in the first half and continued his scoring string into the second, finishing with 19 pts and 7 reb. But Green is still my guy. And you know what else, Bill Raftery agrees — so it doesn’t matter what me or anyone else thinks.

A few more interesting notes on the UNI vs MSU game, as this was the main event of the evening. After Johnny Moran hit a three to pull UNI within one at 43-42 with 10:22 to go, UNI did not score another field goal. Almost 11 minutes. Thats unheard of for this senior team. Also, UNI’s bench, or I guess in this game Jake Koch, combined for only six points and six rebounds (all six pts and four of the rebs were from the young Koch). Normally a strong suit for the Panthers, bench production was almost non-existant despite playing regular minutes. To put this in perspective, against KU, UNI’s bench finished with 18 pts and 13 rebs.

Maybe the most impressive stat of the night, other than MSU outrebounding UNI by 11, was MSU’s assist numbers. Without their starting point guard, main facilitator, and best player (aka Lucas) the Spartans finished with 15 assists on 19 field goals. Think about that for a second, of the 19 shots made by State, 15 of them included helpers from teammates. Couple that with only 10 turnovers and a team 1.5 A/TO ratio and you’re looking at a winning formula. Take pride, UNI fans, in the fact that despite all these uneven stats, PantherNation still had a chance to win the game in the final minutes. This is progress.

(Oh and by the way I was very excited when I saw MSU’s final 59 point total… exactly what I picked for them. I hope this makes up for omar… Does it? Maybe? No? Fine. I blame Brent.)

When CBS finally switched to Duke vs Purdue the game seemed entirely uninteresting. With only a few minutes left, the game was basically over, Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg seemed like they were half asleep (Why are our nation’s scientists not figuring out a way for Gus Johnson/Bill Raftery to call every sporting event ever?), and the camera continued to pan across groves of empty seats in Reliant Stadium. My heart was with Purdue, but Duke looked better on paper and proved it on the hardwood. At least I no longer had to suffer from the agony of watching. It was over.

Night score 2-2. The weekend score 5-3. Hopefully I can do better in the E8.