Final Four Predictions

First off, I want to make sure I extend a big congratulations to Adam Templeton and Kara Finley, who are soon to be married in South Dakota. Along with some former teammates, I am present in SD enjoying the festivities. I couldn’t be happier to see two of my friends, two great people, unite for eternity. I’m ecstatic to be able to share this day with them, and wish them nothing but joy and happiness down the road. Congrats to Adam and Kara! (But a wedding on the first day of the Final Four Temp? How’d you let that one sneak by?)

Back to business. (Well, sort of. Can it be called business if there is absolutely no financial activity? No? Ok then. I’ll try again.)

Here we go again, prediction time. Time for me to try to prove my basketball knowledge (or at least guess right). After a decent 8-4 record coming in, it will be interesting to see how the Final Four plays out.

Game 1 Butler vs Michigan State

To be honest, I’m disappointed that these two teams have to be on the same side of the bracket. I want both these teams to win for different reasons.

Butler is the mid-major team, representing a history of underdogs in the NCAA tournament and basketball players without the most size or talent. But more importantly, this team represents the common man. This is a hard-working team who represents everything that is good about the NCAA. A team filled with scholar-athletes and overachievers who, when put together, can produce a whole greater than the sum of their individual parts. As a basketball fan what more could you ask? Watching Butler play is like watching an instructional video. They are that well coached and they are that good.

Michigan State is my home-town team, boasting mostly Michigan players, and representing the state’s blue-collar work ethic. If you don’t live there, it’s difficult to understand. The state of Michigan (the east side especially) is struggling more than people realize when looking at statistics (After all, who knows what it means to have a 15% unemployment rate statewide, rising above 20% in certain areas? Those are just numbers). But Tom Izzo’s teams show the state that it can succeed.

I often am annoyed with media members overblowing the relationship between team success and the attitude of their host city. But in this case its hard to ignore. Detroit and much of Michigan was built on the premise of assembly-line labor. Workers arrived, put on their hard hats, and got to work, earning each month’s paycheck through. Tom Izzo’s teams compete in much the same way. Izzo prides himself on defense, rebounding, and smart basketball. He doesn’t generally recruit the top-20 players in the country (although he’s gotten a few), he wants the lunch-pail guys. Guys with a chip on their shoulder who are going to work harder than the kid who’s been spoon-fed his whole life. That’s why Izzo recruits so often in Michigan and the surrounding areas; those kids understand the struggle and will do anything to put themselves in a position to succeed.

Now, in saying this, I don’t mean that this doesn’t happen elsewhere. Plenty of coaches recruit players from a disadvantaged upbringing. But Izzo doesn’t go after the bad boys, he recruits the hard-workers. Rarely do MSU athletes (I am referencing the basketball team, not football in this case obviously) find themselves in trouble. Izzo runs a tight ship and deserves all the respect in the world for the job he’s done.

Well, after my two cents on each team that really tells nothing about the game, I guess I better get into some content…

Game 1 represents coaches with similar philosophy. Both teams made it to the Final Four relying on the “ugly” parts of basketball to win (rebounding for MSU and defense for Butler). I’d be surprised, scratch that, I would be shocked if this game reaches 60 points, let alone 70. Neither team is offensive-minded, though they can both score and play very well together.

I think the key to the game will be Butler’s defensive rebounding. MSU is going to have trouble scoring on Butler’s defense despite superior athleticism. But, second chance points could be huge momentum swings in the Spartan’s direction. To get here, Butler had to thwart a similar Kansas State team’s efforts, and did an excellent job.

The most important player for Butler will be Matt Howard (Yes, this is the same Matt Howard that averaged 14 pts, 8 rebs, and 2 blocks in two games against Brent Heemskerk). As an undersized center, a lot of the rebounding will fall on Howard’s hustle, grit, and determination to outsmart the Spartan bigs to the ball. (Oh and remember how I mentioned Howards resemblance to one, Ron Burgundy. Thoughts?)

Howard

Hello San Diego

Burgundy

This face? It's me remembering the time I dunked on Brent Heemskerk. Nasty.

Offensively, Butler knows what they will get from Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward, two players who have been outstanding in this tournament. However, they need Howard to step up on this end as well. Howard will have to be that third scoring option, trying to get easy baskets whenever he can with offensive rebounds and low post feeds. (The game’s wildcard will be the location of one Mr. Heemskerk. If Howard can channel his inner self-confidence by feeling Brent’s presence MSU may be in trouble. If Brent’s location in South Dakota hidden amongst Mt. Rushmore is too difficult for Howard’s radar to detect, Howard could be in for a long day. Brent’s presence is key, not some of the time, all the time. And yes, Brent eagerly awaits the day when people we played against are no longer in the NCAA.)

For Michigan State, their keys remain much the same; find a way to share the ball and break down the opponents defense without your starting point guard and best player (Kalin Lucas). Durrell Summers has stepped up, averaging over 20 PPG and knocking down clutch baskets for the Spartans. But in this game, points in the paint become even more important. With their size advantage, look for MSU to establish Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green, and Delvon Roe posting up smaller players. If Butler is forced to double team, Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, and Summers will be able to get open looks.

This game will be a hotly-contested, low scoring affair that goes down to the wire. Neither team will be willing to give an inch and I’m looking forward to the physical play. Slight edge to MSU for their size and athleticism, but I can already tell the basketball gods (and the Indy fans) are going to be upset with me for this pick.

Final score: Butler 56 – MSU 58
Brent’s Prediction: MSU 1 – Butler 0 (Points don’t matter to the big fella. Just results.)

Game 2 West Virginia vs Duke

While the other side of the bracket predicates everything that is good about college basketball, this matchup shows something entirely different.

In West Virginia, you have an easy-to-hate coach (Bob Huggins) notorious for his thug and intimidation tactics. Huggins will beat his team up so they beat you up. He has a history of giving people second and third chances (not a bad thing) while his teams continually are in trouble with authorities (this is more of a reference back to his Cincy days as we haven’t heard much from the Mountaineer squad). West Virginia’s made it this far by defeating their opponents mentally and physically.

Duke and Coach K have the pretty-boy image of college basketball. Though seemingly cool on the court, Coach K has a reputation for belittling players behind closed doors, often barraging them with a shouldn’t-be-made-public vocabulary. His players either love him or hate him. Just like a lot of fans either love Duke, or hate Duke.

If nothing else, West Virginia vs Duke is intriguing. Duke has shown they can play any style, but matching-up with the forward trio of bully Da’Sean Butler, “Stretch-Armstrong” Devin Ebanks, and increasing steady Kevin Jones, is something the Blue Devils haven’t had to do this year. What makes the Moutaineers so intriguing is that their best players can basically all play the same position. They have size, they have strength, and they have heart.

For Duke to win, they are going to have to shoot well. Jon Scheyer (one of the least favorite players of my former teammate Jonathan Cox), Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith will have to shoot the ball well. Against Baylor, The Dukies were fortunate that despite Singler’s nightmare performance, Smith stepped up and had a career game. Duke’s big three will have to combine for 60 points to keep up with West Virginia’s attack, while their role players must continue to do the dirty work.

West Virginia must defend the three-point line in their zone and not allow Duke to get many open looks. The length of the zone is going to have to bother the Blue Devils, otherwise, we could be looking at a high-scoring matchup.

I like West Virginia and their three forwards to carry them to victory

Final: West Virginia 70 – Duke 64
Brent: Duke 1 – WVU 0

If Gambling Were Legal: Part III (I think?)

Ok, let’s see if today’s results line up better with my predictions.

Game 1: Butler vs Kansas St

This is a very intriguing matchup. While Game 2 will be athletes on athletes, this represents contrasting styles and coaches. Though both younger and opportunistic coaches, Brad Stevens and Frank Martin have drastically differing approaches. Stevens is the calm, cool, and collected Butler coach who is often satisfied with his team on the floor, rarely reacts to mistakes, and exudes confidence in his players. Even in a loss, Stephens never wavers. (When we beat Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse, I’m not sure the guy even blinked.) He’s the type of coach I’d love to play for. Martin is a fiery pistol, ready to blow a gasket at any moment either to player, coach, official, or water bottle.

After watching games on Thursday, I’m going Butler. Both teams are getting over very emotional victories, but the difference is Butler dominated Syracuse. Butler led the entire game and refused to relenquish in the end. Kansas State was in a dogfight against Xavier, and even though the one-two punch of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen showed a flare for the dramatic, I think it might be tough for this team to be as juiced for Butler.

The Bulldogs are poised and balanced, and honestly did not even play their best game against the Orange. A good three point shooting team finished 6-24 from three, and still beat the best team in the country.

Truthfully, part of me is picking Butler to win because: A.) They are a midmajor. B.) I really thought Syracuse was the best team in the tournament. C.) The Final Four is in Indy. D.) Butler is in Indy. E.) With all the upsets this year I think the basketball gods will make this happen.

I like Butler to slow the pace and impose their will on the Wildcats. Look for a close game with Butler pulling away in the closing moments.

Final: Butler 67 – KSU 61

Game 2: West Virginia vs Kentucky

Kentucky scoring only 62 points against Cornell (and still winning by 17) tells me this will NOT be that type of game. Look for the Wildcats to try to jump out early and get their running game going against a West Virginia team that won’t mind doing the same.

This game really becomes an interesting matchup because the stars for both teams play different positions. While Kentucky boasts sure-fire lottery picks John Wall and Demarcus Cousins at point guard and center, respectively, the Mountaineers strut out D’Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks, and Kevin Jones at their wing/power forward positions.

Because of the matchups, some of the less heralded guys on each team will play drastically increased roles. Look for Patrick Patterson of Kentucky to rise to the challenge for Kentucky. Patterson is a junior putting up the lowest numbers of his career because Wall and Cousins demand that much attention. He is still an NBA draft pick and this could be his time to shine.

What kind of effort do I expect out of Patterson? Does anyone remember Travis Walton from the 2009 MSU Spartans? The former point guard turned defensive stopper and heady running mate of 2009 Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas. Walton finished the season averaging just over 5 points per game. But after breezing past Robert Morris in the first round, the Spartans got all they could handle with tenth-seeded USC Trojans boasting DeMar DeRozan and Taj Gibson. Two of MSU top scorers struggled, as Goran Suton and Raymar Morgan combine for 10 points. How does MSU win? Walton stepped up, going 8-13 from the floor finishing with 18 points, willing his team to victory. Walton scored 2 points or less in all but one other tournament game. This performance will always be remember as the one that got his team to the Final Four. The challenge is out there Mr. Patterson. Do you accept?

Oh yeah. And Patterson is from Huntington, WV. Extra motivation.

Because of their version of the Big Three, I like Kentucky to roll in an up-and-down high scoring affair.

Final: WVU 75 – Kentucky 87

A Meaty Sweet Sixteen

The Sweet Sixteen is a big deal. So we couldn’t watch the game just anywhere. The obvious choice? Jethros. (So yes Drake sports fans, I do actually go there. Great food and atmosphere, what’s not to like?) Here is a self-descriptive photo of the WebMaster as we watched Tennessee vs Ohio State. Oh, and this is the SEVENTEENTH time (I felt like “17” didn’t provide enough emphasis) the WebMaster has finished the entire thing. By 9 PM, he traded jeans for sweatpants, and was in a cold sweat the rest of the night. This, to me, only further adds to the accomplishment. Kudos WebMaster.

The Webmaster doing his thing.

This got the night off to a promising start. (Seriously. The guy finished it in about 12 minutes. The rest of the table hadn’t finished passing the ketchup.) But then Brent Heemskerk’s subpar performance happened. I knew I was in for a bad night. Shown with Blair Nelson challenging the WebMaster, the three pounds of meat in Brent’s leftovers box were more disappointing than Omar Samhan laying an egg and me wrongly selecting OSU to win a close one.

Now onto the less important stuff–the tourney. I know, I know. I messed up. By about 8 PM last night I couldn’t believe it. While Tennessee and Ohio State were in a dogfight, St. Mary’s was down 25 plus at the hands of the powerful… Baylor? Wait, my upset pick got smashed by more than 20 points and it wasn’t even THAT close? I don’t know what the line on the game was, but man that was ugly. And even my bold player prediction – omar samhan underperformed. (Since I put his name in all caps before, I feel like all lowercase letters is more fitting after his first half performance. At the half omar had a stellar 3 points on 1-8 shooting with 6 rebounds and 2 blocks. While the last two figures are decent numbers for a half, 1-8 in a half for your game changer is not gonna win many games.)

Brent not finishing his dinner. Shocking.

Brent must have guarded him during halftime instead of eating his dinner, because omar regained his confidence and put up decent numbers in the second half, finishing with a respectable 15 pts and 9 rebs. But, I guess thats what a gamechanger is. The guy who is going to make or break the team. The guy who can win it. Or lose it. Last night, that guy was omar samhan in a nutshell.

Ok, fine, I got that game wrong (yes WAYYY wrong). At least I was going to be 3-1 in my predictions, right? Well, almost. Tennessee vs OSU was a good game. Ultimately these teams were relatively even and put on a show. I was even right about Evan Turner (it was the obvious choice I know, but still). Turner finished with 31 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, a steal and a block. That’s a pretty complete game no matter how you cut it. Oh yeah, and he never sat against a swarming defense designed to stop him, pressure him, and rattle him for the full 94 feet. Even though he finished with 6 turnovers, I cannot take anything away from him. He played a very good floor game. Tennessee just has more bodies and more balance.

Now stumbling into the late games, I understood how OSU could lose (Ugh St. Mary’s) but I needed to pick up two wins to at least salvage the evening.

Actually, before I go there, congrats again to the UNI Panthers on a great season. They surpassed all expectations and showed the NCAA that we the MVC are getting closer. The MVC can be a great conference and successful in March. (Now if only we can annex Butler from the Horizon.) Thanks UNI and congrats on a fantastic year.

As for the game, UNI played tough, but ultimately the size, power and coaching of MSU won out. For one of the first times this season, UNI did not get great shots at the end of the game. They were trying a little too hard. Maybe a little tired.

Regardless, MSU still needed to make a few big plays to win the game, and they did.

I’m happy with my Draymond “Day-Day” Green selection for gamechanger. He was easily the difference. In the first half, UNI got out to a sizable lead as MSU struggled to find their identity.

Without Kalin Lucas, the Spartans lacked a calming influence on the floor. In the second half, that was Green. Green finished with 8 points, 5 rebounds, and a team leading four assists. (Tied with Lucious. Yes the regular point guards for MSU are Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious. Weird, I know. It’d be like if Ali and I played in the same backcourt. As Raftery pointed out last night, a game handmade for Al McGuire.)

Maybe I would’ve been better served selecting Durrell Summers, as he scored half MSU’s points in the first half and continued his scoring string into the second, finishing with 19 pts and 7 reb. But Green is still my guy. And you know what else, Bill Raftery agrees — so it doesn’t matter what me or anyone else thinks.

A few more interesting notes on the UNI vs MSU game, as this was the main event of the evening. After Johnny Moran hit a three to pull UNI within one at 43-42 with 10:22 to go, UNI did not score another field goal. Almost 11 minutes. Thats unheard of for this senior team. Also, UNI’s bench, or I guess in this game Jake Koch, combined for only six points and six rebounds (all six pts and four of the rebs were from the young Koch). Normally a strong suit for the Panthers, bench production was almost non-existant despite playing regular minutes. To put this in perspective, against KU, UNI’s bench finished with 18 pts and 13 rebs.

Maybe the most impressive stat of the night, other than MSU outrebounding UNI by 11, was MSU’s assist numbers. Without their starting point guard, main facilitator, and best player (aka Lucas) the Spartans finished with 15 assists on 19 field goals. Think about that for a second, of the 19 shots made by State, 15 of them included helpers from teammates. Couple that with only 10 turnovers and a team 1.5 A/TO ratio and you’re looking at a winning formula. Take pride, UNI fans, in the fact that despite all these uneven stats, PantherNation still had a chance to win the game in the final minutes. This is progress.

(Oh and by the way I was very excited when I saw MSU’s final 59 point total… exactly what I picked for them. I hope this makes up for omar… Does it? Maybe? No? Fine. I blame Brent.)

When CBS finally switched to Duke vs Purdue the game seemed entirely uninteresting. With only a few minutes left, the game was basically over, Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg seemed like they were half asleep (Why are our nation’s scientists not figuring out a way for Gus Johnson/Bill Raftery to call every sporting event ever?), and the camera continued to pan across groves of empty seats in Reliant Stadium. My heart was with Purdue, but Duke looked better on paper and proved it on the hardwood. At least I no longer had to suffer from the agony of watching. It was over.

Night score 2-2. The weekend score 5-3. Hopefully I can do better in the E8.

If Gambling Were Legal Part II

Since I broke down the games yesterday, I’ll talk more about the players today

Tennessee vs Ohio State

Advantage – Evan Turner. Turner is the most important player to his team of anyone left in the tournament (maybe John Wall fits this category as well). Turner does everything for the Buckeys. He scores, passes, rebounds, and even averages almost two steals a game. Turner is a triple double waiting to happen, and as evidenced by the Buckeye’s second round matchup with Ga Tech, he can dominate the game. After ridding himself of tournament jitters in the first round, look for Turner to continue to impose his will on every facet of the game.

I like the Buckeyes.

Final: Tennessee 62 – OSU 74

Saint Mary’s vs Baylor

OMAR SAMHAN! This man has had the tournament of his life and I don’t see Baylor as the team to shut him down. Samhanis a skilled big man who guarantees double-double performance. Unless he’s in foul trouble look for him to have a field day against the Bears, showing an array of post moves and using his size to crash the offensive glass. An interesting note on Omar – we played against him in the second game of the season back in 2007-2008. Overshadowed by Patty Mills and Diamon Simpson at the time, Samhan was more ogre than basketball player, but still managed to produce 12 pts, 10 rebs, 6 blocks, 2 assts, and 2 steals en route to the Gael’s victory. He DOMINATED Brent Heemskerk who’s alter ego from then on out has been Omar (sorry Brent, it’s public now).

I like the Gael’s as my upset pick

Final: SMC 70 – Baylor 66

UNI vs Michigan State

How can I not say Ali? He’s been the top story of the tournament so far and has been as impressive as any player all year with his clutch shooting. The thing that makes his special is that it doesn’t matter what happened in the first 38 minutes, he is going to make shots in the last two. Gotta love a guy like that (very Klayton Korver-esque). However, I think the key to this game is Draymond Green (fellow Saginaw native). With Kalin Lucas out, Green will play thedistributor role for the Spartans, despite his 6″6″ 235-lb wide body frame. It will be interesting to see him and Lucas O’Rear battle.

MSU needs to pound the offensive glass to get easy buckets, but UNI is gonna make this a close one.

Final: UNI 58 – MSU 59

Purdue vs Duke

Well, now I have to break away from the individual focus and talk about both teams. Each team is balanced and I’m not sure one player alone can determine the outcome of this game. Duke has quietly crept to another very good year. But, Purdue’s defense could be the equalizer. Without Robbie Hummel the Boilers have to continue to find ways to score.

I haven’t been a Duke fan all year and think they got the easiest draw, but I can’t pick Purdue to win this one

Final: Purdue 56 – Duke 63